October 2024 Public Opinion Poll

Takeaway 1: Democrats had a chance to persuade crypto owners, but failed.

• 21% of crypto owners decided who to vote for in the last few days before the election
• Additionally, nearly 50% of crypto owners voted on election day.
• Democrats had a real opportunity to win over crypto voters into the last few days of the campaign but were not able to, likely in part due to internal division within the party over whether to be clearly pro-crypto.

Takeaway 2: Crypto owners contributed to Trump’s popular vote victory.

• 86% of voters say they are not current crypto owners - they voted for Harris 49-49
• 13% of voters say they are currently crypto owners - they voted for Trump 55-42
• Crypto owners provided Trump with more votes than the margin of difference in the popular vote in this election.
• We believe that even more voters who have previously owned crypto added to this margin.

Takeaway 3: Crypto owners leaned Republican this election.

• Non-crypto owners split 49-49 between Democrats and Republicans for Congress
• Crypto owners voted for Republicans over Democrats by 13%, 55-42
  

This poll of 800 voters in the 2024 general election was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on the evening of November 5, 2024, with all respondents contacted by phone. It has a margin of error of 3.46%.

Original post from October 30, 2024

Crypto will matter at the ballot box this November.

That’s the major lesson from our October 2024 poll, our last full poll of this cycle. Five percent of voters identify themselves as single-issue crypto voters, and crypto owners could easily be the margin of victory or defeat in this seemingly razor-thin election. Meanwhile, the views of crypto among the American electorate continue to expand and mature, and voters increasingly see crypto as a major part of their lives in the future.

Takeaway 1: 1/4 of those who have bought or own crypto describe themselves as single issue crypto voters

• We asked the 20% of voters who have bought crypto the following question: “Would you say you are a single-issue crypto voter, in that government policy on crypto is the most important policy you consider when selecting a candidate for office?”
• ¼ of that group, 5% of all voters, describe themselves as single-issue crypto voters.
• This includes 11% of voters 18-34, 8% of men, and 7% of non white voters (including 7% of black and 8% of Hispanic voters).
• In an election where the key tipping point states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia are all likely to be decided by 1-2 points, 5% of voters is more than the margin of victory.

Takeaway 2: Crypto Ownership looks likely to continue to grow

• As of this month, 20% of voters say they have invested in, traded, or used a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, and another 15% say they are likely to invest in crypto in the next year.

• These numbers rise to 21% and 18% among independent voters.
• 1% of voters say they have first invested in crypto in the last few weeks, including 3% of independent voters

Takeaway 3: Crypto ownership continues to skew younger, nonwhite, and male.

• 29% of men have bought crypto, while 12% of women have bought crypto.
• Much like our March poll, 40% of men 18-54 have bought crypto, along with 16% of women 18-34 and 19% of women 35-54.
• The percentage of non-white voters who have bought crypto was lower in this poll than our previous poll, at 23%, while the percentage of white voters who have bought crypto was higher than before, at 19%.
• This matches the demographic profile of the key swing voters both the Harris and Trump campaigns say they are fighting over in the final weeks of this election.

Takeaway 4: Crypto owners may be the decisive margin in this election

• Among all voters polled, 48% are backing Vice President Kamala Harris for president, while 46% are backing former President Donald Trump.
• However, these results nominally diverge between voters who have bought crypto and those who have not bought crypto. Among voters who have not bought crypto, Harris leads 48% to 45%. Among the 20% of voters who have bought crypto, the candidates are tied at 47%. These changes are within the margin of error of course.
• We know that the small number of votes that may decide this election, and it is probable that the popular vote margin will be approximately 2-3% more Democratic leaning that the state worth the 270th electoral vote.
• As a result, Trump performing a few points better among crypto owners could be the margin of victory in this year’s election.

Takeaway 5: Voters increasingly trust the Republican Party on crypto policy over the Democratic Party

• In March, we asked voters “Which party do you trust more when it comes to cryptocurrency?” 25% said the Democratic Party, 24% said the Republican Party, 3% said both, and 49% said neither.
• Now, over six months later, we asked that question again. 30% of voters now say they trust the Republican Party more, while 24% said they trust the Democratic Party more, with 5% saying both and 41% saying neither.
• Independents remain up for grabs, with 9% saying they trust the Republican Party, 10% trusting the Democratic Party, and 72% saying they trust neither.

Takeaway 6: Americans increasingly expect crypto to be part of their daily lives in the future.

• When asked whether they think cryptocurrency will be a passing fad or a major part of the economy in the long term, 46% of voters and 47% of independent voters said it would be a major part of the economy in the long term.
• Given that only 20% of voters have bought crypto, these figures reveal that even tens of millions of voters who have not yet directly purchased crypto see it as a major part of American life going forward.

Takeaway 7: Crypto owners lean towards thinking Trump will be better for crypto.

• We asked voters who have bought crypto “Who do you think would be a better President for the growth and regulation of cryptocurrency?”
• 58% of voters who have bought crypto (12% of voters overall) answered that Donald Trump would be better, while 42% of voters who bought crypto (just under 9% of voters) answered that Kamala Harris would be better.

• Further underscoring the complexity of crypto voters, 7% of voters who have bought crypto (a little over 1% of voters overall) said they believe Trump would be better but are voting for Harris, while 2% of voters who have bought crypto (less than 1% of voters overall) said they believe Harris would be better but are voting for Trump.

Takeaway 8: Voters’ views of the Biden Administration’s approach to crypto and tech policy generally remain negative, but voters are more positive about a Trump or Harris Administration.

• We asked voters: “Thinking about the Biden administration's policies on technology and cryptocurrency, would you say the administration's policies have been good for American innovation, or been bad for American innovation?” 49% of voters said they were very good or somewhat good, while 51% of voters said they were very bad or somewhat bad.
• Among independents, views were more skewed to the negative, with 54% saying they were very bad or somewhat bad. Just 11% of voters and 6% of independent voters said the policies were very good.

• We also asked how people would rate how strongly they think Donald Trump or Kamala Harris cares about American innovation on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being an extremely great deal. Voters estimated both Harris and Trump as rating at a 5.5 on this question, with independents rating both at a 5.1.
• Taken collectively, voters appear to see both Harris and Trump as leading an administration that is more positive on tech and innovation than the Biden Administration has been.

Takeaway 9: People are becoming more aware of DeFi.

• We asked whether poll respondents had heard of “Decentralized Finance or DeFi,” and a majority of American voters, 53%, said they had heard of the term.
• Views of DeFi are not yet firm, however. Only 10% of voters said they had a favorable opinion of DeFi, while 16% said they had an unfavorable opinion and 27% said they had no opinion.
• Independent voters’ views of DeFi are nearly even more closely split, with 11% having a positive opinion of DeFi, 13% having a negative opinion, and 30% having no opinion.

Paradigm conducted a national survey using the Dynata online panel from October 17 to 22. Quotas were set and weights were applied by age, gender, education, and ethnicity to be reflective of the likely November 2024 electorate. Trend data is from previous surveys conducted by Paradigm also using the Dynata online panel. Sample size = 1000 likely voters polled online with a margin of error of 3.53%, along with an oversample of 247 independent voters with a margin of error of 7.11%.

For political observers, we found that Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 44-43, 44% of respondents self-identified as Republicans and 42% self-identified as Democrats, and President Joe Biden’s job approval is underwater at 41-59. Harris leads Trump nationally 48% to 46%; among independent voters, Harris leads 42% to 30%.